Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | USA -175 GAST +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +14 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -4.7 (-18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -4.5 (-18.5) | 145.9 (+20.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -3.7 (-17.7) | 145.3 (+20.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -3.4 (-17.4) | 145.8 (+20.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -3.8 (-17.8) | 148.6 (+17.4) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | USA 69 – 67 GAST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | USA 77 – 51 GAST |
| Dec 31, 2022 | GAST 68 – 58 USA |
| Feb 5, 2022 | GAST 69 – 62 USA |
| Jan 14, 2022 | USA 74 – 65 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#218) | -2.9 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#190) | -0.57 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#193) | -0.92 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#241) | 0.462 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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