Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | GAST -110 USA +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +10 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | USA -1.9 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -0.9 (+10.9) | 130.1 (-4.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -0.8 (+10.8) | 132.0 (-6.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -1.3 (+11.3) | 130.8 (-4.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -1.3 (+11.3) | 130.8 (-4.8) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | USA 69 – 67 GAST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | USA 77 – 51 GAST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GAST 90 – 76 USA |
| Feb 5, 2022 | GAST 69 – 62 USA |
| Jan 14, 2022 | USA 74 – 65 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-9 | 10-4 |
| Away | 0-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#258) | 1.8 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#282) | -0.05 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#269) | 0.15 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#292) | 0.528 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.1% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.2% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 14.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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