Betting Lines
| Spread | GRAM -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GRAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +8 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | GRAM -3.1 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GRAM -3.3 (-11.3) | 141.5 (+10.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GRAM -3.4 (-11.4) | 142.6 (+9.4) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GRAM -3.3 (-11.3) | 142.8 (+9.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GRAM -2.9 (-10.9) | 143.4 (+8.6) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | GRAM 65 – 63 ALST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GRAM 57 – 47 ALST |
| Mar 14, 2025 | ALST 64 – 62 GRAM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALST 59 – 47 GRAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | GRAM 77 – 67 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GRAM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-4 | 6-6 |
| Away | 4-14 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#311) | -8.6 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#264) | -2.38 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#273) | -2.74 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#256) | 0.382 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GRAM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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