Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +3 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | MONM -7.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -5.1 (-2.1) | 137.7 (-22.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -5.6 (-2.6) | 139.1 (-24.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -5.9 (-2.9) | 139.2 (-24.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -6.1 (-3.1) | 139.5 (-24.5) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | FAIR 73 – 65 MONM |
| Dec 21, 2024 | MONM 88 – 74 FAIR |
| Jan 21, 2022 | MONM 61 – 58 FAIR |
| Mar 11, 2021 | FAIR 79 – 60 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 6-9 |
| Away | 10-7 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#119) | -0.6 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#104) | -0.50 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#104) | -0.67 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#70) | 0.487 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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