Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | MONM -333 FAIR +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +19 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | MONM -8.6 (-27.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -5.3 (-24.3) | 140.3 (-1.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -6.5 (-25.5) | 143.5 (-4.5) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -6.2 (-25.2) | 143.0 (-4.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -5.9 (-24.9) | 143.2 (-4.2) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | FAIR 73 – 65 MONM |
| Dec 21, 2024 | MONM 88 – 74 FAIR |
| Feb 5, 2022 | MONM 59 – 56 FAIR |
| Jan 21, 2022 | MONM 61 – 58 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-8 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-2 | 4-8 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#177) | -9.0 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#150) | -1.09 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#161) | -1.37 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#77) | 0.444 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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