Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +3 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | MONM -1.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -2.5 (-0.5) | 135.1 (-16.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -2.4 (-0.6) | 136.5 (-17.5) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -2.3 (-0.7) | 137.5 (-18.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -2.4 (-0.6) | 138.6 (-19.6) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | FAIR 73 – 65 MONM |
| Dec 21, 2024 | MONM 88 – 74 FAIR |
| Feb 5, 2022 | MONM 59 – 56 FAIR |
| Mar 11, 2021 | FAIR 79 – 60 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 6-9 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#182) | 4.4 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#226) | 1.12 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#233) | 1.32 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#206) | 0.572 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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