Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR +120 MONM -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +8 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -0.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -1.8 (+6.2) | 146.5 (-8.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -2.5 (+5.5) | 146.0 (-8.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -2.3 (+5.7) | 147.4 (-9.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -3.3 (+4.7) | 147.0 (-9.0) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | MONM 88 – 74 FAIR |
| Feb 5, 2022 | MONM 59 – 56 FAIR |
| Jan 21, 2022 | MONM 61 – 58 FAIR |
| Mar 11, 2021 | FAIR 79 – 60 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#286) | -3.4 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#221) | -1.05 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#233) | -2.09 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#242) | 0.458 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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