Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MONM -175 FAIR +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +14 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | MONM -4.6 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -3.3 (+10.7) | 139.8 (+22.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -2.4 (+11.6) | 142.0 (+20.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -2.3 (+11.7) | 142.4 (+19.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -2.6 (+11.4) | 141.7 (+20.3) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | FAIR 73 – 65 MONM |
| Feb 5, 2022 | MONM 59 – 56 FAIR |
| Jan 21, 2022 | MONM 61 – 58 FAIR |
| Mar 11, 2021 | FAIR 79 – 60 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-14 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#304) | -8.9 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#323) | -1.02 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#308) | -1.90 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#335) | 0.454 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.7% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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