Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +8 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -9.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -5.3 (+2.7) | 140.9 (-4.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -6.5 (+1.5) | 142.5 (-6.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -5.9 (+2.1) | 142.5 (-6.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -6.6 (+1.4) | 144.0 (-8.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | HOW 79 – 53 UMES |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMES 69 – 57 HOW |
| Feb 17, 2025 | HOW 86 – 62 UMES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | HOW 77 – 57 UMES |
| Mar 2, 2024 | HOW 70 – 66 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-13 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 6-8 |
| Home | 8-4 | 6-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 62.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#190) | -7.2 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#273) | -1.18 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#261) | -2.10 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#302) | 0.452 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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