Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIT +14 | 200 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -0.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (+41.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -0.2 (+14.2) | 156.0 (+44.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -0.2 (+14.2) | 154.7 (+45.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -0.1 (+14.1) | 155.1 (+44.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -0.9 (+14.9) | 155.5 (+44.5) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | SAM 78 – 75 CIT |
| Feb 6, 2026 | SAM 78 – 64 CIT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SAM 83 – 58 CIT |
| Jan 2, 2025 | SAM 86 – 56 CIT |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SAM 92 – 80 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#258) | -1.9 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#243) | 0.47 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#251) | 0.38 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#232) | 0.517 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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