Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +20 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -11.2 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -10.8 (-9.2) | 148.5 (-20.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -9.7 (-10.3) | 149.2 (-21.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -9.7 (-10.3) | 150.4 (-22.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -10.7 (-9.3) | 148.9 (-20.9) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CMU 75 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CMU 73 – 69 BUF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | BUF 75 – 69 CMU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | BUF 76 – 64 CMU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | BUF 63 – 35 CMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-23 | 19-11 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-6 |
| Home | 2-9 | 9-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -12.4 (#338) | 2.0 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#279) | 0.19 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#298) | 0.49 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#266) | 0.517 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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