Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +36 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -8.0 (+28.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -7.5 (+28.5) | 140.8 (-8.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -4.8 (+31.2) | 141.6 (-9.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -4.6 (+31.4) | 141.5 (-9.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -5.0 (+31.0) | 139.9 (-7.9) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCSD 64 – 63 UCSB |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UCSB 62 – 48 UCSD |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UCSD 69 – 51 UCSB |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCSD 77 – 63 UCSB |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCSD 84 – 76 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-11 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 0-0 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#162) | -4.7 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#276) | -0.93 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#256) | -0.88 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#312) | 0.452 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 18.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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