Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -135 UCSD +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +8 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -4.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+23.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -2.2 (-10.2) | 134.6 (+25.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -2.3 (-10.3) | 136.7 (+23.3) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -3.1 (-11.1) | 137.0 (+23.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -1.2 (-9.2) | 134.6 (+25.4) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCSD 64 – 63 UCSB |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UCSB 62 – 48 UCSD |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UCSD 69 – 51 UCSB |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCSD 77 – 63 UCSB |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UCSD 61 – 46 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 18-2 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-7 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 63.0 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#78) | 6.7 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#137) | 0.99 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#147) | 1.16 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#197) | 0.535 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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