Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UCSD -700 UCSB +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +18 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -11.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -11.9 (+6.1) | 137.7 (-17.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -12.8 (+5.2) | 139.4 (-19.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -12.4 (+5.6) | 140.3 (-20.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -13.6 (+4.4) | 137.3 (-17.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCSD 64 – 63 UCSB |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UCSB 62 – 48 UCSD |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCSD 77 – 63 UCSB |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCSD 84 – 76 UCSB |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UCSD 61 – 46 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 12-2 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#42) | 1.5 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#38) | 0.43 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#48) | 0.31 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#40) | 0.478 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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