Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD -550 UCSB +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +14 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -12.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -12.4 (+1.6) | 135.4 (+4.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -11.2 (+2.8) | 135.8 (+4.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -11.9 (+2.1) | 136.7 (+3.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -11.7 (+2.3) | 138.8 (+1.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCSD 64 – 63 UCSB |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UCSB 62 – 48 UCSD |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UCSD 69 – 51 UCSB |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCSD 84 – 76 UCSB |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UCSD 61 – 46 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 12-2 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#60) | 1.0 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#63) | 0.23 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#81) | -0.07 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#80) | 0.475 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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