Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UCSB -135 UCSD +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +1 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -1.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -1.0 (-2.0) | 141.7 (-14.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -1.0 (-2.0) | 141.2 (-14.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -0.2 (-1.2) | 143.2 (-16.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -0.5 (-1.5) | 144.4 (-17.4) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | UCSB 62 – 48 UCSD |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UCSD 69 – 51 UCSB |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCSD 77 – 63 UCSB |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCSD 84 – 76 UCSB |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UCSD 61 – 46 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#140) | 2.8 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#150) | 0.53 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#143) | 0.68 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#146) | 0.529 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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