Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UCSD -250 UCSB +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +15 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -8.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (-39.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -7.3 (+7.7) | 144.1 (-37.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -5.2 (+9.8) | 142.4 (-35.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -6.8 (+8.2) | 145.4 (-38.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -7.2 (+7.8) | 146.6 (-39.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCSD 64 – 63 UCSB |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UCSB 62 – 48 UCSD |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UCSD 69 – 51 UCSB |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCSD 77 – 63 UCSB |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCSD 84 – 76 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-7 |
| Away | 7-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#109) | -0.5 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#144) | -0.23 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#137) | -0.21 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#152) | 0.483 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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