Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +9 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -2.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (-15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -1.1 (+7.9) | 137.9 (-12.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -2.4 (+6.6) | 138.9 (-13.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -2.2 (+6.8) | 138.4 (-13.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -2.6 (+6.4) | 138.3 (-13.3) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ARST 81 – 58 UL |
| Feb 20, 2026 | ARST 79 – 62 UL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | ARST 83 – 64 UL |
| Jan 17, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ARST 89 – 62 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 8-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#189) | -0.1 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#124) | -0.26 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#120) | -0.08 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#131) | 0.484 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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