Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +18 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | COLG -10.9 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -11.2 (-6.8) | 136.1 (+17.9) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -9.0 (-9.0) | 137.0 (+17.0) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -9.5 (-8.5) | 138.5 (+15.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -10.4 (-7.6) | 137.4 (+16.6) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | AMER 70 – 66 COLG |
| Jan 8, 2026 | COLG 64 – 62 AMER |
| Mar 9, 2025 | AMER 72 – 62 COLG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | AMER 67 – 59 COLG |
| Jan 25, 2025 | AMER 81 – 77 COLG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 16-2 |
| Home | 6-5 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-16 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -12.8 (#339) | 1.3 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#321) | -0.67 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#323) | -0.53 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#334) | 0.483 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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