Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +11 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -5.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -6.7 (+4.3) | 130.4 (+28.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -5.0 (+6.0) | 134.1 (+24.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -5.8 (+5.2) | 135.1 (+23.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -6.0 (+5.0) | 135.7 (+23.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CONN 73 – 63 VILL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | CONN 75 – 67 VILL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CONN 73 – 56 VILL |
| Feb 18, 2025 | CONN 66 – 59 VILL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | VILL 68 – 66 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 13-6 |
| Home | 12-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#8) | 15.7 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#16) | 2.71 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.68 (#15) | 3.57 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#18) | 0.594 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 42.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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