Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -900 VILL +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +8 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -9.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -8.9 (-0.9) | 136.7 (+5.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -10.4 (-2.4) | 135.7 (+6.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -10.8 (-2.8) | 135.0 (+7.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -10.0 (-2.0) | 137.1 (+4.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CONN 73 – 63 VILL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CONN 73 – 56 VILL |
| Feb 18, 2025 | CONN 66 – 59 VILL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | VILL 68 – 66 CONN |
| Feb 25, 2024 | CONN 78 – 54 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 20.3 (#12) | 14.2 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.23 (#3) | 2.71 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.98 (#4) | 3.64 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.674 (#5) | 0.616 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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