Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -130 CONN +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -0.4 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -0.6 (+1.4) | 149.2 (-15.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -1.9 (+0.1) | 146.6 (-12.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -1.3 (+0.7) | 150.5 (-16.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -0.7 (+1.3) | 152.6 (-18.6) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CONN 73 – 63 VILL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | CONN 75 – 67 VILL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CONN 73 – 56 VILL |
| Feb 18, 2025 | CONN 66 – 59 VILL |
| Feb 25, 2024 | CONN 78 – 54 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#47) | 16.1 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#106) | 2.67 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#92) | 3.68 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#116) | 0.585 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 41.5% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 2.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.6% | 58.0% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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