Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -425 VILL +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +7 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -6.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -7.5 (-0.5) | 135.3 (-10.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -6.8 (+0.2) | 138.2 (-13.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -6.7 (+0.3) | 137.0 (-12.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -7.3 (-0.3) | 137.4 (-12.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CONN 73 – 63 VILL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | CONN 75 – 67 VILL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CONN 73 – 56 VILL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | VILL 68 – 66 CONN |
| Feb 25, 2024 | CONN 78 – 54 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#32) | 11.0 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#51) | 1.01 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#39) | 1.50 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#70) | 0.521 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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