Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | VILL +142 CONN -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +10 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -2.4 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -0.2 (-9.8) | 140.6 (-4.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -1.0 (-11.0) | 140.0 (-4.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -0.7 (-10.7) | 140.0 (-4.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -0.1 (-10.1) | 141.7 (-5.7) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | CONN 75 – 67 VILL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CONN 73 – 56 VILL |
| Feb 18, 2025 | CONN 66 – 59 VILL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | VILL 68 – 66 CONN |
| Feb 25, 2024 | CONN 78 – 54 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 34-6 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#38) | 19.9 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#23) | 4.16 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.82 (#23) | 5.11 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#22) | 0.656 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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