Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -290 VILL +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +17 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -3.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -3.5 (+13.5) | 137.4 (-8.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -4.0 (+13.0) | 134.0 (-5.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -3.7 (+13.3) | 139.1 (-10.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -3.1 (+13.9) | 139.4 (-10.4) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CONN 73 – 63 VILL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | CONN 75 – 67 VILL |
| Feb 18, 2025 | CONN 66 – 59 VILL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | VILL 68 – 66 CONN |
| Feb 25, 2024 | CONN 78 – 54 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#29) | 11.2 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#44) | 1.19 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#34) | 1.77 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#64) | 0.525 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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