Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -1000 VILL +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +24 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -10.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -10.9 (+13.1) | 137.0 (-5.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -11.8 (+12.2) | 139.7 (-7.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -10.7 (+13.3) | 139.8 (-7.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -11.2 (+12.8) | 139.2 (-7.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CONN 73 – 63 VILL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | CONN 75 – 67 VILL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CONN 73 – 56 VILL |
| Feb 18, 2025 | CONN 66 – 59 VILL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | VILL 68 – 66 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 10-10 |
| Home | 17-0 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W13 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 19.8 (#5) | 12.6 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#3) | 1.38 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.11 (#3) | 1.93 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#10) | 0.559 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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