Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +17 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -0.5 (-16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -0.3 (-16.7) | 138.3 (-7.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -1.3 (-18.3) | 139.0 (-8.0) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IU -1.3 (-18.3) | 139.0 (-8.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -1.6 (-18.6) | 140.0 (-9.0) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | ILL 71 – 51 IU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | ILL 94 – 69 IU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | ILL 70 – 62 IU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | IU 71 – 68 ILL |
| Jan 20, 2023 | IU 80 – 65 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#23) | 16.1 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#37) | 2.71 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#34) | 3.19 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#43) | 0.613 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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