Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +22 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -10.4 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+27.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -13.1 (+8.9) | 144.5 (+27.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -10.9 (+11.1) | 146.6 (+25.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -10.7 (+11.3) | 145.6 (+26.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -10.3 (+11.7) | 145.2 (+26.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2025 | MTSU 76 – 61 UAB |
| Dec 1, 2024 | MTSU 76 – 69 UAB |
| Nov 22, 2023 | UAB 58 – 57 MTSU |
| Feb 11, 2023 | UAB 92 – 69 MTSU |
| Jan 17, 2023 | MTSU 74 – 73 UAB |
Game Analysis
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