Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +9 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | CCSU -4.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (+37.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -1.3 (+7.7) | 135.8 (+37.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -2.4 (+6.6) | 135.6 (+37.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -2.6 (+6.4) | 137.4 (+35.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -2.0 (+7.0) | 137.7 (+35.3) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | CCSU 63 – 57 FDU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | FDU 76 – 66 CCSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | CCSU 76 – 72 FDU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | CCSU 87 – 66 FDU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CCSU 71 – 60 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCSU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 4-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-7 | 3-8 |
| Away | 4-15 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -13.5 (#342) | -14.5 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.64 (#343) | -3.23 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.20 (#342) | -3.62 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#338) | 0.375 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCSU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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