Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +22 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -5.7 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+24.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -5.4 (-16.6) | 139.5 (+22.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -5.3 (-16.7) | 139.4 (+22.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -5.2 (-16.8) | 138.8 (+23.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -5.9 (-16.1) | 140.2 (+21.8) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | W&M 85 – 78 UNCW |
| Jan 23, 2026 | W&M 77 – 70 UNCW |
| Feb 24, 2025 | UNCW 79 – 70 W&M |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 74 W&M |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UNCW 81 – 65 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 15-3 |
| Home | 4-10 | 12-2 |
| Away | 1-14 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L10 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#332) | -2.8 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#327) | 0.56 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#336) | 0.13 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#333) | 0.532 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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