Come on down and meet your maker. Come on down and take a stand. "The Stand" - The Alarm
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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42–15 on winners spread MAE 9.2 57 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Cal Poly @ Long Beach State +10.1 137.3 85% 65–78 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Old Dominion +1.1 142.1 54% 77–60 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Florida International -3.8 143.9 34% 86–82 ✓
Santa Clara @ San Diego -3.0 147.0 36% 79–66 ✓
UNC Asheville @ High Point +1.4 134.2 53% 83–91 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh -6.0 132.6 29% 76–71 ✓
Princeton @ Columbia -11.5 156.9 15% 85–63 ✓
Harvard @ Yale +4.8 144.3 72% 55–58 ✓
Stony Brook @ NJIT -3.9 141.8 32% 62–65 ✗
New Hampshire @ UMBC +4.6 136.0 71% 77–88 ✓
Liberty @ Eastern Kentucky -5.3 145.4 25% 91–84 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Bellarmine +5.0 136.6 72% 75–70 ✗
Oakland @ Wright State -1.6 150.7 39% 64–75 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky +3.0 136.3 66% 74–68 ✗
Indiana State @ Valparaiso +1.8 141.8 61% 72–79 ✓
Kentucky @ Alabama -1.9 158.2 43% 66–55 ✓
UCF @ Memphis +5.4 146.0 69% 60–88 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Davis +0.2 135.8 50% 65–68 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Murray State +16.5 143.3 90% 59–79 ✓
Montana State @ Weber State +4.8 147.8 73% 78–57 ✗
Montana @ Idaho State -11.1 131.8 15% 63–86 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Houston Christian -4.7 147.6 27% 80–93 ✗
California Baptist @ Grand Canyon +10.3 139.0 85% 50–56 ✓
Chicago State @ Tarleton State +11.1 136.3 86% 54–57 ✓
Pacific @ Pepperdine +1.7 140.5 59% 64–70 ✓
San Francisco @ Portland -11.1 142.4 16% 74–71 ✓
Kansas State @ TCU +5.3 129.9 72% 75–63 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Illinois State +0.9 139.1 55% 75–69 ✗
St. Thomas @ Oral Roberts +10.2 156.3 85% 66–88 ✓
Western Illinois @ Kansas City +1.8 147.2 59% 82–91 ✓
South Dakota State @ South Dakota -6.0 157.3 24% 89–79 ✓
New Mexico @ Air Force +0.7 138.7 56% 91–77 ✗
Oregon @ Utah -3.3 142.9 36% 80–77 ✓
Belmont @ Tennessee Tech -12.0 148.6 15% 100–92 ✓
Mississippi State @ Arkansas +6.5 147.4 76% 55–63 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Southern Utah +4.0 155.2 71% 72–84 ✓
Gonzaga @ BYU -9.3 158.5 20% 90–57 ✓
UCLA @ Arizona State -10.9 134.1 16% 84–87 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Fullerton +7.6 133.1 78% 61–75 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Northridge -10.6 128.2 15% 75–70 ✓
Sacramento State @ Portland State +4.5 138.3 68% 65–73 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Saint Mary's +16.1 132.9 90% 60–71 ✓
Providence @ Georgetown -7.4 145.4 23% 71–52 ✓
Maryland @ Ohio State +9.4 142.8 82% 67–82 ✓
Iona @ Niagara -6.2 141.6 25% 71–80 ✗
Manhattan @ Canisius +1.0 142.3 57% 70–77 ✓
Green Bay @ Purdue Fort Wayne +7.0 135.5 78% 55–71 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Missouri State +2.0 139.5 59% 71–62 ✗
Monmouth @ Quinnipiac -4.0 145.5 31% 76–63 ✓
Marist @ Saint Peter's +2.9 138.5 69% 50–66 ✓
Siena @ Fairfield +6.2 132.4 76% 62–56 ✗
Milwaukee @ Cleveland State +10.6 144.4 86% 71–84 ✓
Nevada @ San Diego State +11.0 129.4 86% 63–65 ✓
Washington @ Stanford +5.8 139.2 72% 69–87 ✓
Akron @ Miami (OH) -1.2 139.8 43% 71–59 ✓
Minnesota @ Iowa +9.5 148.8 83% 59–71 ✓
Houston @ Cincinnati -5.5 130.5 24% 80–58 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.