Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +28 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -6.4 (+21.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -5.3 (+22.7) | 143.9 (+4.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -6.7 (+21.3) | 141.4 (+6.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -5.4 (+22.6) | 146.0 (+2.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -5.1 (+22.9) | 145.3 (+2.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2023 | MEM 81 – 76 UCF |
| Feb 17, 2023 | MEM 64 – 63 UCF |
| Jan 12, 2023 | UCF 107 – 104 MEM |
| Mar 12, 2022 | MEM 85 – 69 UCF |
| Jan 13, 2022 | UCF 74 – 64 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#54) | 6.2 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#99) | 1.25 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#69) | 1.64 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#84) | 0.551 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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