Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | MEM -250 UCF +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +1 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -4.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -4.6 (-3.6) | 147.2 (-20.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -4.9 (-3.9) | 144.8 (-17.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -5.4 (-4.4) | 150.2 (-23.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -4.8 (-3.8) | 150.8 (-23.8) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2023 | MEM 81 – 76 UCF |
| Jan 12, 2023 | UCF 107 – 104 MEM |
| Mar 12, 2022 | MEM 85 – 69 UCF |
| Feb 6, 2022 | MEM 88 – 60 UCF |
| Jan 13, 2022 | UCF 74 – 64 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#46) | 9.1 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#39) | 1.19 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#26) | 1.50 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#27) | 0.556 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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