Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -235 UCF +192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -2.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -2.2 (+2.8) | 143.5 (+13.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -2.2 (+2.8) | 140.3 (+16.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -2.9 (+2.1) | 141.8 (+15.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -2.8 (+2.2) | 141.4 (+15.6) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2023 | MEM 64 – 63 UCF |
| Jan 12, 2023 | UCF 107 – 104 MEM |
| Mar 12, 2022 | MEM 85 – 69 UCF |
| Feb 6, 2022 | MEM 88 – 60 UCF |
| Jan 13, 2022 | UCF 74 – 64 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#35) | 8.9 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#31) | 0.88 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#23) | 1.26 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#22) | 0.539 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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