Memphis
Tigers
85
–
69
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Air Force Reserve American Athletic Conference
UCF
Knights
Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -420 UCF +375 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +16 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -7.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -5.8 (+10.2) | 140.3 (+13.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -6.1 (+9.9) | 138.4 (+15.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -6.4 (+9.6) | 141.5 (+12.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -6.0 (+10.0) | 140.8 (+13.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2023 | MEM 81 – 76 UCF |
| Feb 17, 2023 | MEM 64 – 63 UCF |
| Jan 12, 2023 | UCF 107 – 104 MEM |
| Feb 6, 2022 | MEM 88 – 60 UCF |
| Jan 13, 2022 | UCF 74 – 64 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#24) | 5.1 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#58) | 1.09 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#41) | 1.48 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#43) | 0.537 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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