Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -105 MEM -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -0.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -2.9 (+7.1) | 146.8 (-8.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -1.2 (+8.8) | 144.0 (-6.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -2.2 (+7.8) | 147.2 (-9.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -2.0 (+8.0) | 150.3 (-12.3) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2023 | MEM 81 – 76 UCF |
| Feb 17, 2023 | MEM 64 – 63 UCF |
| Jan 12, 2023 | UCF 107 – 104 MEM |
| Mar 12, 2022 | MEM 85 – 69 UCF |
| Feb 6, 2022 | MEM 88 – 60 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#65) | 11.0 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#64) | 1.26 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#61) | 2.45 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#85) | 0.565 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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