Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +22 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -9.3 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -6.6 (-15.4) | 131.0 (+7.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -5.5 (-16.5) | 130.5 (+7.5) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -6.0 (-16.0) | 131.4 (+6.6) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -5.8 (-16.2) | 131.6 (+6.4) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOU 76 – 54 CIN |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HOU 67 – 60 CIN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | HOU 73 – 64 CIN |
| Feb 28, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 CIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HOU 67 – 62 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 32-6 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 9-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 58.8 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#67) | 20.5 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#77) | 3.17 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#74) | 4.36 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#88) | 0.639 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 38.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.7% | 42.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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