Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +3 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -12.7 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (+37.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -11.1 (+14.1) | 134.5 (+36.5) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -10.9 (+13.9) | 134.1 (+36.9) | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -10.5 (+13.5) | 134.3 (+36.7) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -10.5 (+13.5) | 136.4 (+34.6) | 19% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2025 | UCLA 90 – 77 ASU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UCLA 59 – 47 ASU |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UCLA 68 – 66 ASU |
| Mar 3, 2023 | UCLA 79 – 61 ASU |
| Jan 20, 2023 | UCLA 74 – 62 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-6 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 64.5 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#138) | 17.4 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#158) | 3.38 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#180) | 4.37 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#153) | 0.625 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 14.3% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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