Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +23 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -10.7 (+33.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.9 (+26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -8.4 (+31.4) | 131.8 (+17.2) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -11.1 (+34.1) | 131.8 (+17.2) | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -10.0 (+33.0) | 132.2 (+16.8) | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -10.2 (+33.2) | 132.8 (+16.2) | 15% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | IDST 73 – 69 MONT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MONT 69 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MONT 81 – 68 IDST |
| Jan 19, 2025 | IDST 86 – 62 MONT |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MONT 72 – 58 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-23 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-9 |
| Home | 5-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-14 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -16.0 (#353) | -2.1 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.52 (#354) | 0.25 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.86 (#353) | 0.34 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.340 (#356) | 0.502 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 17.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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