Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +8 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -1.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+40.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -0.3 (+8.3) | 135.6 (+38.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -1.4 (+6.6) | 134.2 (+39.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -0.8 (+7.2) | 135.1 (+38.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -0.8 (+7.2) | 135.0 (+39.0) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | HPU 75 – 71 UNCA |
| Feb 20, 2026 | HPU 74 – 48 UNCA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | HPU 87 – 69 UNCA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | HPU 104 – 100 UNCA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCA 103 – 99 HPU |
Game Analysis
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