Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 173.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -550 UNCA +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +4 | 204 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -9.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (+46.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -8.4 (-4.4) | 153.1 (+50.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -8.2 (-4.2) | 150.4 (+53.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -8.5 (-4.5) | 151.1 (+52.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -7.5 (-3.5) | 152.2 (+51.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | HPU 75 – 71 UNCA |
| Feb 20, 2026 | HPU 74 – 48 UNCA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | HPU 87 – 69 UNCA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCA 103 – 99 HPU |
| Feb 7, 2024 | UNCA 86 – 81 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 11-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#99) | -1.3 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#95) | 0.76 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#94) | 0.69 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#82) | 0.564 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.