Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA +100 HPU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +5 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -0.4 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -0.4 (+5.4) | 156.9 (+10.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -0.9 (+5.9) | 153.4 (+13.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -0.6 (+4.4) | 154.7 (+12.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -0.5 (+4.5) | 156.3 (+10.7) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | HPU 75 – 71 UNCA |
| Feb 20, 2026 | HPU 74 – 48 UNCA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | HPU 87 – 69 UNCA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | HPU 104 – 100 UNCA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCA 103 – 99 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 13-3 |
| Home | 12-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 82.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#173) | 3.3 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#131) | 1.28 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#148) | 1.68 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#113) | 0.562 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 37.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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