Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -1200 UNCA +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -12.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -11.2 (-7.2) | 148.6 (-2.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -11.3 (-7.3) | 147.5 (-1.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -10.5 (-6.5) | 147.1 (-1.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -11.0 (-7.0) | 148.1 (-2.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | HPU 74 – 48 UNCA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | HPU 87 – 69 UNCA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | HPU 104 – 100 UNCA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCA 103 – 99 HPU |
| Feb 7, 2024 | UNCA 86 – 81 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 8-8 |
| Home | 17-1 | 8-7 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#80) | -4.6 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#95) | -0.91 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#104) | -0.98 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#70) | 0.501 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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