Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -1600 UNCA +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +26 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -14.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -12.5 (+13.5) | 148.5 (-26.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -13.2 (+12.8) | 147.6 (-25.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -13.1 (+12.9) | 146.9 (-24.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -12.2 (+13.8) | 147.6 (-25.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | HPU 75 – 71 UNCA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | HPU 87 – 69 UNCA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | HPU 104 – 100 UNCA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCA 103 – 99 HPU |
| Feb 7, 2024 | UNCA 86 – 81 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 8-8 |
| Home | 17-1 | 8-7 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#78) | -3.2 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#99) | -0.96 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#107) | -0.87 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#86) | 0.486 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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