Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA +150 HPU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +4 | 202 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -0.3 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (+51.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -0.3 (+4.3) | 149.4 (+52.6) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -0.2 (+3.8) | 148.9 (+53.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -0.0 (+4.0) | 149.0 (+53.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -0.6 (+4.6) | 150.8 (+51.2) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | HPU 75 – 71 UNCA |
| Feb 20, 2026 | HPU 74 – 48 UNCA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | HPU 87 – 69 UNCA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | HPU 104 – 100 UNCA |
| Feb 7, 2024 | UNCA 86 – 81 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 14-2 |
| Home | 13-1 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-9 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 81.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#215) | 1.4 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#189) | 0.61 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#190) | 0.66 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#174) | 0.505 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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