Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA +525 HPU -750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +18 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -7.4 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -9.0 (-9.0) | 147.8 (+8.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -7.3 (-10.7) | 149.4 (+6.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -8.0 (-10.0) | 151.0 (+5.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -7.9 (-10.1) | 148.7 (+7.3) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | HPU 75 – 71 UNCA |
| Feb 20, 2026 | HPU 74 – 48 UNCA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | HPU 104 – 100 UNCA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCA 103 – 99 HPU |
| Feb 7, 2024 | UNCA 86 – 81 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 31-5 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 15-1 |
| Home | 8-7 | 17-1 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#235) | 7.0 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#248) | 0.11 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#238) | 0.32 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#280) | 0.486 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 1.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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