Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +11 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -3.1 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-39.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -1.5 (-9.5) | 154.5 (-33.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -1.9 (-9.1) | 158.2 (-37.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -1.8 (-9.2) | 158.6 (-37.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -2.3 (-8.7) | 157.3 (-36.3) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | ALA 89 – 74 UK |
| Mar 15, 2025 | ALA 99 – 70 UK |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ALA 96 – 83 UK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ALA 102 – 97 UK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UK 117 – 95 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-3 | 18-0 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 66.6 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#19) | 20.2 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#31) | 3.13 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#26) | 4.19 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.653 (#4) | 0.632 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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