Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +11 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -4.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+29.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -5.4 (+5.6) | 138.6 (+26.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -4.6 (+6.4) | 136.0 (+29.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -4.0 (+7.0) | 136.2 (+28.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -4.4 (+6.6) | 137.9 (+27.1) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 69 UNH |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UMBC 85 – 63 UNH |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 74 UNH |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UNH 79 – 78 UMBC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNH 79 – 76 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#224) | -4.3 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#235) | -1.31 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#240) | -1.77 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#221) | 0.468 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.5% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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