Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +11 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -18.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -14.0 (-3.0) | 130.5 (+0.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -16.1 (-5.1) | 132.9 (-1.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -16.5 (-5.5) | 133.7 (-2.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -16.5 (-5.5) | 132.7 (-1.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | SMC 78 – 73 LMU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | SMC 58 – 55 LMU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | SMC 81 – 56 LMU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | SMC 70 – 65 LMU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SMC 68 – 64 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 3-12 |
| Home | 16-0 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.3 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#22) | -2.7 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#23) | 0.26 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#31) | 0.32 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#8) | 0.518 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 78.3% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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