Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +9 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -6.8 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -5.7 (+14.7) | 141.0 (+10.0) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -6.2 (+15.2) | 141.6 (+9.4) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -6.2 (+15.2) | 141.4 (+9.6) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -5.9 (+14.9) | 142.6 (+8.4) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | NIA 70 – 68 IONA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | IONA 71 – 53 NIA |
| Feb 28, 2025 | IONA 65 – 63 NIA |
| Feb 9, 2024 | IONA 74 – 71 NIA |
| Jan 7, 2024 | NIA 75 – 73 IONA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 17-3 |
| Home | 7-4 | 13-0 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#203) | 8.4 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#216) | 2.58 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#225) | 3.02 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#188) | 0.630 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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